报告详情
Robust Monte Carlo Framework for Optimizing EV Fleet Maintenance: Balancing Stochastic Degradation and Lifecycle Cost
编号：120
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更新：2025-10-13 11:28:12 浏览：38次
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摘要
Electric vehicle (EV) battery degradation is a critical determinant of performance, cost, and longevity, particularly within diverse fleet operations. While extensive research exists on state of health (SoH) estimation and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, few studies present a unified framework that explicitly connects stochastic degradation dynamics with comparative maintenance cost modeling across heterogeneous EV usage sectors. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a Monte Carlo-driven simulation framework that integrates an exponential SoH degradation model perturbed with Gaussian noise, analytical RUL forecasting, and economic models for both preventive and corrective maintenance. The simulations reveal pronounced degradation disparities across private EVs, taxis, and buses, with commercial fleets exhibiting accelerated aging. For instance, bus batteries reach the 80% SoH threshold in only 41.8 days, compared to 424.3 days for private EVs. The framework captures RUL variability under uncertainty, enabling robust predictive decision-making. A comparative strategy assessment demonstrates that preventive maintenance triggered at a SoH threshold of 0.85 consistently minimizes total lifecycle cost, achieving 49% – 57% savings over run-to-failure strategies. These findings offer actionable insights for fleet managers to optimize asset utilization, for original equipment manufacturers to design usage-specific battery packs, and for policymakers to formulate evidence-based fleet sustainability guidelines.
关键词
Corrective maintenance, cost modeling, battery degradation, stochastic simulation, fleet management.
报告人
MD AL HASIB
Student China West Normal University稿件作者
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重要日期
-
会议日期
11月07日
2025
至11月09日
2025
-
10月12日 2025
初稿截稿日期
-
10月30日 2025
注册截止日期
主办单位
IEEE西南交通大学IAS学生分会
承办单位
西南交通大学电气工程学院
SPACI车网关系研究室
四川大学电力系统稳定与高压直流输电研究团队
SPACI车网关系研究室
四川大学电力系统稳定与高压直流输电研究团队
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